The forex Combo system is devided into three different expert advisors which follow scalping, breakout and countertrend trading strategies. The webpage is pretty straightforward and takes us directly to the evidence of profitability for this trading system. The first thing that we see are backtests for the past 3 years for each one of the trading systems. I have to say two things about this, first, giving results in pips is an absolutely misleading way of showing profits (as the actual result we are interested in is actual percentage of equity and how this relate to pip values depends on money management) second, the levels of profit this guy talks about are absolutely irrealistic. Unfortunately it is this type of system that drives most people to say that metatrader backtesting is completely “worthless” and that people should only listen to live testing evidence. Of course, in cases like this, backtesting seems to be flawed because of a) the strategy has serious problems with interpolation errors because it enters trades midbar or b) the strategy has been designed purposefully to overexploit hindsight. Both of this things should be explained by the seller and the values are completely unrealistic and are NOT true. The system shows the classical behavior of a system that exploits a backtesting failure with huge profits and very smal draw downs. It has been shown that when this type of systems are brought to live trading they fail heavily.
The creator of the expert advisor also shows us some very limited live testing information which was suspiciously only carried out for two months. Given the fact that this was started in march and we are currently in septemeber, this guy could have approximately 6 months of live testing. Why doesn’t he show them ? the truth is that he probably doe snot because the evidence did not favor his sales very much. Probably the system started to fail after the first few nonths and he therefore did not dare publish the results on his website. I mean, if I were him, I would have trouble sleeping. How could you sell something to people which you know by a fact, is NOT profitable. Talk about being unethical.
If he stopped the testing because he just didn’t feel like testing anymore then how the hell can you sell something to people that you dare not trade with your own money ? There is just no way out of this, once you publish live testing you must keep on publishing it indefintely or otherwise it casts serious doubts on both the profitability of the system and the ethics of the person selling it. In my opinion this is just a worthless trading system like many others which has a backtest that is totally worthless and some very limited live testing that is only there to impress people who are easily caught by the idea of heavy profits (which unfortunately can be many).
Of course, this system is totally NOT worth buying and I would advice anyone who finds a system like this to just run away. However, if you would like to learn more about expert advisor evaluation and how you can stop losing and start a long term profitable relation with automated trading lease consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !