The recent decision of the CFTC to make US citizens lose their ability to trade on foreign brokers has meant that – for many – the ability to trade system portfolios sharing the same pair in Metatrader 4 is now none-existent. In Asirikuy we have developed several portfolios within the Atinalla project with Atinalla No.2 being the only non-NFA compliant one. Due to the fact that the building of compliant portfolios has now become a higher priority due to this CFTC decision I decided to focus a good part of my efforts in the development of a reliable portfolio to trade Asirikuy systems in an NFA-compliant manner. On today’s post I will share with you some of the results of Atinalla No.3, a new portfolio I have developed during the past two months to tackle this compliance problem. Through this post you will see what the portfolio achieves in simulations and what its profit and draw down targets are in the longer term. (all the details of this NFA-compliant portfolio will also be uploaded to Asirikuy’s Atinalla Project section later today)
When I started building this portfolio I wanted to put together a group of systems such that all 4 majors were traded on at least 2 different systems so that diversification regarding both trading techniques and currency pairs was present. By trying a combination of several strategies I finally arrived at the final composition of this portfolio trading on the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD and the USD/JPY using various Asirikuy systems. This new portfolio manages to get significant profitability under NFA compliant conditions using trend following techniques based on candlestick patterns and breakouts, with significant hedging between the profit and draw down periods of the different systems.
The above image shows the equity curve of Atinalla No.3 from January 2000 to June 2010. The systems where originally optimized for the first ten years but the last six months have been a “walk forward” as the systems have not been optimized to trade this period. We can see that the systems perform very well on the forward walking period implying that the optimizations being done in a coarse and careful way – to avoid curve fitting – do lead to continuous profitable results under new market conditions. Of course we will need to wait for years in order to know if this is the case for a statistically significant move forward (at least 5 years) but currently results for the ten year optimizations are encouraging.
The image above shows the monthly return of the portfolio for all the testing period. You can see that the portfolio has a reduced number of losing months – especially when compared with Atinalla No.2 and No.1 – although the average losing month is deeper than for other portfolios. The system achieves an average compounded yearly profit of 30% with a maximum draw down level around 15%, showing us that the system is able to grab profits from the market with a low draw down and a significant average compounded yearly profit. Atinalla No.3 – in line with other portfolios – does not have a single losing year during the past 10.5 years and the actual yearly profitability – shown below – highlights the fact that the system is able to maintain quite consistent return figures through long periods of time.
Perhaps one of the most interesting characteristics is the fact that Atinalla No.3 has a low pain index -around 4.15- making it easier to trade than Atinalla No.2 and just a little bit harder to trade than Atinalla No.1. The fact that the maximum draw down period length for Atinalla No.3 is 188 days and its maximum draw down just slightly above 15% makes the psychological pressure of running this portfolio low as draw down periods do not last as long as for other portfolios or for other systems that have maximum draw down periods lengths of even 2 or 3 years.
Atinalla No.3 is the result of my effort to develop an NFA-compliant portfolio that has conservative profit and draw down targets with a low maximum draw down and a low maximum draw down period length. For American Asirikuy members Atinalla No.3 might be the best option to trade in a portfolio environment until Metatrader 5 is released. Note that there is also a non-NFA compliant Atinalla No.3 version available within Asirikuy using some of the additional capabilities of the systems used for this portfolio. Since this new platform uses a net positioning approach Asirikuy members will be able to trade all Atinalla portfolios regardless of the hedging and FIFO restrictions that are taken into account by the new trading methodology found in Metatrader 5.
If you would like to learn more about the Atinalla Project and the portfolios developed within it as well as how you can develop your own system portfolios please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)